Surprised? I am. Expired collective bargaining agreement, decertification and probable lockout. No disrespect to the tragedy in Japan, but this is a metaphorical tsunami that can well damage all concerned. I think going forward it will be very difficult for the owners in both a court of law and the court of public opinion. The NFL/NFLPA Collective Bargaining Agreement expired because the players would not agree to extend it unless the owners provided the financial information the players had requested. The big sticking point in the negotiations is the owners insistence their costs have risen necessitating taking a second billion off the top of the revenue pie. (The owners want to take $2 billion of the roughly $9 billion in annual revenue generated by the league, before splitting the rest under a formula that provides roughly 60% to player compensation.) Yet the owners are only offering to provide limited access to financial information. This sounds like the typical discovery dispute - one side provides documents requested by the other side and after the production, the requesting party says it needs more. The real issue is hard to assess. Irrespective of the merits of what was produced and whether it was sufficient, I think owners will have a difficult time convincing anyone they provided all the financials the union needed.

In a move that seems more designed to curry favor with fans and the media, the National Football League (NFL) has filed refusal to bargain charges against the National Football League Players Association (NFLPA). The charges are largely directed at the players threat and authorization to decertify (disband) the union, which likely would bring into play antitrust claims against the owners if they choose to lock out the players. There is an antitrust exemption for collective bargaining, but if the union goes away, so does the reason supporting the exemption. The players have decertified the union before, and that resulted in free agency and the salary cap which were created to settle earlier antitrust litigation. This is another volley in the public relations battle for fan support. While one observer claims the owners will win the PR battle, I'm not a believer. In fact I think his argument that things will get too complicated for fans to sort out works in favor of the players. If the owners lock the players out, you can expect the anti-labor noise machine to crank up full volume in support of the owners, but the simple issue for fans will be the owners created the problem.

The New York Times has an interesting article about the NFL and NFLPA wooing and informing the public about the looming labor dispute.

The cat and mouse jockeying between the NFL and the NFLPA turns to the players marking today (January 18) as #LETUSPLAY across social media. The players are trying to counter the accusation they favor a lockout, and more positively, perhaps build sentiment against owners employing a lockout strategy. The owners want new rules and a lockout is not the only way to get them. The owners could bargain to impasse and unilaterally impose the rules leaving the players the choice to either play under the new rules or strike. The latter option would seem unlikely given a #LETUSPLAY social media blitz.