First the NFL, and now maybe the NBA? Professional basketball has only just recovered from the last labor dispute (1998-1999) and is being rewarded with full houses and on court excitement. But the collective bargaining agreement expires in 2011, and that could mean an aggressive play by the billionaire owners against the millionaire players - a lockout.

March 4, June 30, and December 11 2011 are fateful dates for labor according to this AP feed.  Those are the dates the NFL, NBA and MLB labor agreements expire. (The NFL agreement expires September 15, 2012). Lockouts loom likely in both the NFL and NBA, although it seems more likely MLB will reach a deal. Perhaps that is because baseball suffered twelve years of reduced attendance after the 1994-95 strike. These labor negotiations are a potential game changer for labor which has seen its public image take a huge hit in the last few years. Prior posts here. The players are the presumptive beneficiaries of public opinion, but the anti-labor noise machine has not engaged yet. This will be an epic public relations struggle, and one with high stakes for organized labor, not to mention the fans and the host cities. Who will take the fall for the disruption? That is the underlying struggle worth watching.

We find that players have up to 4% fewer fouls called against them and score up to 21⁄2% more points on nights in which their race matches that of the refereeing crew. Player statistics that one might think are unaffected by referee behavior are uncorrelated with referee race. The bias in foul- calling is large enough that the probability of a team winning is noticeably affected by the racial composition of the refereeing crew assigned to the game.

Could the NBA and the NFL both have 2011 lockouts?

The National Basketball Association (NBA) wants to cut down on complaints and gestures which show insufficient respect for the referees or the game. Arguing a call or other offensive conduct, even if not directed at the game official may result in a technical foul. Technical fouls can also lead to player fines. The players association file unfair labor practices in the 2006-07 season, and again threatens legal action. Griping at work about work rules certainly is protected by the National Labor Relations Act. Can the league establish a business justification for the muzzling of the complaints? Would a technical foul remedy do as much injury to the game as complaining?